Offline marketing attribution: methods and models
Offline marketing attribution is how a business works out which offline actions, such as TV, radio, print, flyers, in-store signage or screens, led to sales, and how much each one contributed. There are four common methods. Surveys and focus groups ask customers what influenced them. Before-and-after comparisons set sales during a campaign against a previous period. Tracking codes, such as unique coupons, tie a purchase to a specific piece of media. Attribution modelling and marketing mix modelling estimate each channel's contribution statistically, using models such as first-touch, last-touch, linear or time-decay. Each method answers part of the question, but none sees what happens between the ad and the shelf. In a store, the most precise approach is closed-loop: record whether each shopper passed the placement, match that trip with its receipt, and compare exposed shoppers with a similar group that was not exposed. See how it works in Offline Attribution.
Offline attribution links marketing activity to sales that happen in physical stores, so each campaign or placement gets credit for the purchases it influenced. Online attribution follows clicks and cookies; offline attribution has to connect exposure in the physical world with a purchase at the till.
Retailers traditionally measure it with surveys and focus groups, before-and-after sales data, or tracking codes such as unique coupons. Each method answers part of the question, but none sees what happens between the ad and the shelf. Modelling attribution (attribution modelling and marketing mix modelling) estimates the contribution of each channel, but it depends on data quality, carries uncertainty and has to infer the step between exposure and purchase.